Uncategorized
The Country That Built Both the Sword and the Shield
How China’s rare earth and BeiDou supply chains underpin both Israeli missile defense and Iranian strike capabilities, and what this means for defense…
2 avril 2026
Anna K.Country Intelligence
Industrial & Corporate Base
China
China stands out in this dataset through named industrial and corporate presence, policy leverage over trade and investment, and upstream production exposure, with its strongest relevance showing up in Gallium, Graphite, and Terbium.
This country stands out through downstream industrial presence, named companies, and end-market relevance rather than pure upstream concentration.
Industrial basePolicy driverProducer base
Strategic Read
Industrial base
China matters because upstream supply concentration still drives pricing power, availability, and procurement risk across multiple materials.
Policy events
34
Materials covered
20
Leading materials
GalliumGraphiteTerbiumDysprosium
Overview
Why China matters
Primary read
Industrial base
Why it matters
China matters because upstream supply concentration still drives pricing power, availability, and procurement risk across multiple materials.
What to watch
Watch policy changes, permitting, and trade rules alongside any shift in Gallium exposure.
Coverage signals
Materials covered
20
Linked policy events
34
Refining appearances
17
Named companies
37
These are dataset signals showing how often China appears across strategic materials research, not official reserve or production totals.
Mining / upstream supply
Very High
18
Refining / processing
Very High
17
Policy leverage
Very High
34
Industrial presence
Very High
37
Material Exposure
Where China appears in the dataset
Ga
Gallium
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Gallium matters here because of producer signal: 99% (primary low-purity), refining share: 99%, 2 named players, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
99% (primary low-purity)
Refining share
99%
C
Graphite
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Graphite matters here because of producer signal: 77% (1,230,000 tonnes), refining share: 92%, 3 named players, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
77% (1,230,000 tonnes)
Refining share
92%
Tb
Terbium
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Terbium matters here because of producer signal: ~90% (separation and refining), refining share: 90%, 5 named players, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
~90% (separation and refining)
Refining share
90%
Dy
Dysprosium
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Dysprosium matters here because of producer signal: 85-90% (refining/separation), refining share: 90%, 4 named players, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
85-90% (refining/separation)
Refining share
90%
Nd
Neodymium
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerKey Player
Neodymium matters here because of producer signal: 58% mining, 92% magnets (2020), refining share: 90%, and 5 named players.
Producer signal
58% mining, 92% magnets (2020)
Refining share
90%
Ge
Germanium
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Germanium matters here because of producer signal: 80-85% (Yunnan Chihong: 60 t/yr capacity), refining share: 83% (~1,040), 1 named player, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
80-85% (Yunnan Chihong: 60 t/yr capacity)
Refining share
83% · ~1,040
Co
Cobalt
Processing and refining relevance
SourceRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Cobalt matters here because of refining share: 73% (170,910), 5 named players, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Refining share
73% · 170,910
In
Indium
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Indium matters here because of producer signal: 55–65% (~760 t in 2025), refining share: 60%, 2 named players, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
55–65% (~760 t in 2025)
Refining share
60%
V
Vanadium
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Vanadium matters here because of producer signal: 60-70% (~60,000-70,000 tonnes), refining share: 57%, 3 named players, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
60-70% (~60,000-70,000 tonnes)
Refining share
57%
Sn
Tin
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Tin matters here because of producer signal: ~31-33% (91,000-100,000 tonnes mined), refining share: 50% (185,000-200,000), 1 named player, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
~31-33% (91,000-100,000 tonnes mined)
Refining share
50% · 185,000-200,000
Mo
Molybdenum
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Molybdenum matters here because of producer signal: ~46% (133,700 tonnes), refining share: 46%, 1 named player, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
~46% (133,700 tonnes)
Refining share
46%
Cu
Copper
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Copper matters here because of producer signal: ~1.8 Mt mining; 43% of refining, refining share: 43%, 2 named players, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
~1.8 Mt mining; 43% of refining
Refining share
43%
Se
Selenium
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerChokepoint
Selenium matters here because of producer signal: ~42-50% (~1,500-1,800 t), refining share: 50% (~1,500-1,800), and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
~42-50% (~1,500-1,800 t)
Refining share
50% · ~1,500-1,800
Te
Tellurium
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerChokepoint
Tellurium matters here because of producer signal: 180-210 t/yr (35-38%), refining share: 36%, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
180-210 t/yr (35-38%)
Refining share
36%
Be
Beryllium
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerRefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Beryllium matters here because of producer signal: ~21% (77 tonnes), refining share: 30% (150 (BeO) + 1,500 (BeCu master alloy)), 3 named players, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
~21% (77 tonnes)
Refining share
30% · 150 (BeO) + 1,500 (BeCu master alloy)
Au
Gold
Integrated upstream and refining presence
ProducerSourceRefinerChokepoint
Gold matters here because of producer signal: ~380 t (largest miner), refining share: 12%, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
~380 t (largest miner)
Refining share
12%
Ta
Tantalum
Processing and refining relevance
RefinerKey PlayerChokepoint
Tantalum matters here because of refining share: 25% (200-300), 1 named player, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Refining share
25% · 200-300
Li
Lithium
Upstream production relevance
ProducerSourceChokepoint
Lithium matters here because of producer signal: 17.1% (41,000 tonnes) and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
17.1% (41,000 tonnes)
W
Tungsten
Upstream production relevance
ProducerSourceChokepoint
Tungsten matters here because of producer signal: 83% (67,000 tonnes) and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
83% (67,000 tonnes)
Ag
Silver
Upstream production relevance
ProducerSource
Silver matters here because of producer signal: 13% (3,300 tonnes).
Producer signal
13% (3,300 tonnes)
Production & Refining
Industrial footprint by material
| Material | Roles | Producer signal | Refining |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gallium | Producer, Source, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | 99% (primary low-purity) | 99% |
| Graphite | Producer, Source, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | 77% (1,230,000 tonnes) | 92% |
| Terbium | Producer, Source, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | ~90% (separation and refining) | 90% |
| Dysprosium | Producer, Source, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | 85-90% (refining/separation) | 90% |
| Neodymium | Producer, Source, Refiner, Key Player | 58% mining, 92% magnets (2020) | 90% |
| Germanium | Producer, Source, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | 80-85% (Yunnan Chihong: 60 t/yr capacity) | 83% · ~1,040 |
| Cobalt | Source, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | N/A | 73% · 170,910 |
| Indium | Producer, Source, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | 55–65% (~760 t in 2025) | 60% |
| Vanadium | Producer, Source, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | 60-70% (~60,000-70,000 tonnes) | 57% |
| Tin | Producer, Source, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | ~31-33% (91,000-100,000 tonnes mined) | 50% · 185,000-200,000 |
| Molybdenum | Producer, Source, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | ~46% (133,700 tonnes) | 46% |
| Copper | Producer, Source, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | ~1.8 Mt mining; 43% of refining | 43% |
| Selenium | Producer, Source, Refiner, Chokepoint | ~42-50% (~1,500-1,800 t) | 50% · ~1,500-1,800 |
| Tellurium | Producer, Source, Refiner, Chokepoint | 180-210 t/yr (35-38%) | 36% |
| Beryllium | Producer, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | ~21% (77 tonnes) | 30% · 150 (BeO) + 1,500 (BeCu master alloy) |
| Gold | Producer, Source, Refiner, Chokepoint | ~380 t (largest miner) | 12% |
| Tantalum | Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | N/A | 25% · 200-300 |
| Lithium | Producer, Source, Chokepoint | 17.1% (41,000 tonnes) | N/A |
| Tungsten | Producer, Source, Chokepoint | 83% (67,000 tonnes) | N/A |
| Silver | Producer, Source | 13% (3,300 tonnes) | N/A |
Key Players
Companies and industrial actors linked to China
Shuikoushan Non-Ferrous Metals Group
China
State-owned; Songbai, Hunan. Estimated 150 t/yr BeO and ~1,500 t/yr BeCu master alloy capacity.
Fuyun Hengsheng Beryllium Industry
China
Located in Fuyun, Xinjiang. Substantial beryllium processing capacity; exact figures less documented.
DL Industry Group
China
Private enterprise accounting for >80% of Chinese beryllium-copper master alloy exports.
Huayou Cobalt
China
Largest cobalt refiner globally; DRC mining equity
CMOC Group
China
Owns Tenke Fungurume (DRC), one of world's largest Co mines
GEM Co.
China
Battery recycling and Co refining; supplies CATL
CNGR Advanced Material
China
Precursor cathode material; major NMC supplier
CATL
China
World's largest battery manufacturer; ~37% global market share
Jiangxi Copper
China
One of China's largest copper smelter/refiners
China Northern Rare Earth Group
China
World's largest RE producer. Dominant HREE separation from Bayan Obo and southern Chinese IAC deposits.
China Southern Rare Earth Group
China
Major HREE producer from ion-adsorption clay deposits in Jiangxi and Fujian.
Shenghe Resources
China
Integrated RE mining, processing, and global trading. Strategic stakes in non-Chinese projects.
JL Mag Rare-Earth
China
One of China's largest NdFeB magnet producers. Supplies global EV and wind OEMs.
China Aluminum Corp (Chalco)
China
Largest primary gallium producer; extracted during alumina refining
Zhuhai Fangyuan
China
Major Chinese gallium refiner
Yunnan Germanium
China
Subsidiary of Yunnan Chihong; world's largest Ge producer (~60 t/yr capacity)
BTR New Material Group
China
World's largest anode manufacturer
Ningbo Shanshan
China
Major synthetic and natural anode supplier
Putailai
China
Leading synthetic graphite anode producer
Zhuzhou Smelter Group
China
Estimated capacity 200–250 t/yr; state-owned enterprise; major ITO target supplier. 4N–5N grades.
Huludao Zinc Refinery
China
Estimated capacity 150–200 t/yr; state-owned; primary and secondary indium production.
China Molybdenum (CMOC)
China
Major Chinese Mo and Cu producer with global operations. Vertically integrated from mining to downstream processing.
Northern Rare Earth
China
Largest REE producer; operates Bayan Obo mine and separation facilities
China Rare Earth Group
China
State-owned consolidation of southern China REE producers
Shenghe Resources
China
REE processing; strategic partner to MP Materials
JL MAG Rare-Earth
China
Top 3 global NdFeB magnet manufacturer
Zhong Ke San Huan
China
Major sintered NdFeB magnet producer
Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry
China
China's largest Ta refiner. Low-cost processing of African coltan. 200-300 t/year capacity. Limited RMI/ITSCI audit presence.
Northern Rare Earth Group
China
Bayan Obo operator; world's largest RE company. Estimated 120–140 t Tb output/year.
China Southern Rare Earth
China
Major separator processing ion-adsorption ore. Estimated 80–100 t Tb output/year.
Shenghe Resources
China
Premium separation; high-purity Tb; Terfenol-D alloy supplier. 30–40 t Tb/year.
Xiamen Tungsten
China
Integrated tungsten + RE company; magnets and phosphor feedstock. 20–30 t Tb/year.
JL MAG (Jingci Material)
China
Expanding GBD; targeting ~50% of premium magnets by 2025.
Yunnan Tin Co. (YTC)
China
World's largest tin smelter (60,000-80,000 t/yr capacity). Processes domestic and imported (Myanmar) concentrates. Gejiu district, Yunnan.
Pangang Group
China
World's largest vanadium producer, ~16-17% global market share. Full product range (V2O5, FeV, vanadium chemicals). Panzhihua titaniferous magnetite operations.
HBIS Chengsteel
China
High-purity V2O5 (99.5-99.9%) for aerospace and battery applications. Proprietary vanadium electrolyte production technology. Exports to 30+ countries.
Dalian Rongke Power
China
Built the world's largest VRFB — Jimusaer project (200 MW / 1,000 MWh) and the 100 MW / 400 MWh Dalian project. Partner of China Three Gorges.
Policy Activity
Relevant policy and regulation
2027
2027 (target)
China targets 12 GWh cumulative VRFB capacity
China · China NDRC / Energy Administration
Massive VRFB deployment target would require tens of thousands of tonnes of additional vanadium demand, potentially tightening global supply.
Mar
Mar 2026
China deploys first urban underground VRFB (Sichuan)
China · China / Sichuan Province
1.25 MW VRFB installed in commercial building basement — demonstrating non-flammable VRFB suitability for urban environments where lithium-ion is restricted.
Mar
Mar 2026
US lawmakers urge Pentagon to stockpile vanadium
China · Arkansas Congressional Delegation
Request for at least one year's supply of ferrovanadium and aerospace-grade V2O5, citing vulnerability of weapons supply chains to China-Russia supply dominance.
Feb
Feb 2026
China (Hunan) restricts lithium-ion in underground/rooftop installations
China · Hunan Province, China
Li-ion and sodium-ion batteries restricted from underground, rooftop, or densely populated building installations. VRFBs remain unrestricted, boosting flow battery demand for urban energy storage.
Feb
Feb 2026
DRC announces cobalt export curbs
China · DRC Ministry of Mines
Export restrictions imposed (quota/licensing details TBD). Exposes China's vulnerability despite 73% refining — dependent on DRC feed. Spot market tightening.
Nov
Nov 9, 2025
China suspends germanium ban to US
China · MOFCOM (China)
Temporary relief through Nov 27, 2026. Licensing regime continues. Market uncertainty persists.
Nov
Nov 2025
China suspends second-wave controls until Nov 2026 (Announcement No. 70)
China · MOFCOM / GAC (China)
Suspends October announcements (57, 61, 62) until 2026-11-10. April 2025 controls remain in effect. Creates temporary but uncertain reprieve.
Nov
Nov 2025
China temporarily pauses certain export controls (through Nov 2026)
China · China MOFCOM
Temporary suspension of some export controls, but underlying architecture remains intact. Vanadium not yet directly restricted but risk persists given defense applications.
Oct
Oct 2025
China expands export controls to Eu, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb and assemblies
China · MOFCOM (China)
Broadens scope to potentially affect energy, automotive, defence, semiconductor, and data centre sectors globally.
Oct
Oct 2025
China introduces extraterritorial rare earth controls (Announcement No. 61)
China · MOFCOM (China)
Controls apply to rare earth items produced outside China if containing >0.1% value ratio of China-origin controlled inputs. Semiconductor end-use screening added.
Sep
Sep 2025
Ethnic armed forces seize Pangwa mining hub (Myanmar)
China · Kachin State armed organisations
Disrupts approximately 50% of Myanmar-to-China RE shipments. Direct constraint on global Dy availability, compounding China export controls.
May
May 2025
Lynas achieves first Dy oxide production outside China
China · Lynas Rare Earths (Malaysia)
Historic milestone: first HREE separation outside China. HREE circuit capacity up to 1,500 t/yr mixed HREE, though Mt Weld ore is LREE-dominated (~2-3% HREE).
Apr
Apr 2025
China announces export controls on rare earth items (Announcement No. 18)
China · MOFCOM / GAC (China)
Controls on REE metals, oxides, compounds, targets, and NdFeB magnets containing Dy/Tb. Licensing requirements for export of listed items.
Apr
Apr 2025
China imposes export licensing on Dy, Tb, Sm, Gd, Lu, Sc, Y
China · MOFCOM (China)
Requires special export licences; quotas assigned to approved enterprises. European Dy oxide prices nearly triple within weeks, from ~US$330-380/kg to >US$930/kg by early 2026.
Feb
Feb 2025
China MOFCOM Announcement No. 10: export controls on Mo, W, Te, Bi, In
China · China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM)
Requires special government licensing for exports of strategic-grade Mo materials. Creates supply uncertainty for global importers dependent on Chinese refined Mo products.
Feb
Feb 2025
China tightens indium export controls with additional compliance requirements
China · MOFCOM (China)
Added bureaucratic hurdles to licensing regime. Demonstrated incremental tightening playbook consistent with gallium/germanium precedent.
Jan
Jan 2025
USGS confirms export ban in Mineral Commodity Summaries
China · USGS
Official confirmation of China's ban; highlights 100% US import dependency.
Dec
Dec 2024
China bans gallium exports to the United States
China · MOFCOM (China)
Complete ban on Ga shipments to US. Further tightening of supply for American semiconductor manufacturers.
Dec
Dec 3, 2024
China bans germanium exports to the United States
China · MOFCOM (Announcement No. 46)
Complete ban. Prices reach $2,850-3,000/kg (99.999%). US scrambles for alternative sources.
2024
2024
Continued Chinese emphasis on recycling, substitution, and 'green development' in rare earths
China · China MIIT
Ion-adsorption clay quotas remain constrained. Policy shifting extraction toward Bayan Obo hard-rock mining.
Nov
Nov 2024
Bushveld Minerals enters financial distress
China · Bushveld Minerals (South Africa)
Key non-China/Russia primary vanadium producer enters bankruptcy proceedings, reducing Western supply diversity and tightening the non-aligned supply base.
Sep
Sep 2024
China mandatory rebar standard GB 1499.2-2024 takes effect
China · China SAC (Standardization Administration)
Mandates higher vanadium intensity in reinforcing steel for concrete structures. Could increase annual vanadium consumption by 13,000-15,000 tonnes of vanadium nitride at full enforcement.
Dec
Dec 2023
China Imposes Graphite Export Controls
China · China MOFCOM
Requires special permits for exporters of highly sensitive graphite products, including battery-grade spherical graphite. South Korea and Japan heavily impacted.
Dec
Dec 2023
China state media speculates on 'graphite-style' export controls for rare earths
China · China state media / MOFCOM
Triggered stockpiling behavior and an 18% Tb oxide price spike. Highlighted ongoing geopolitical supply risk.
Aug
Aug 2023
China export licensing requirement takes effect
China · MOFCOM (China)
All gallium exports require individual license with 45-day approval process. Immediate supply disruption.
Aug
Aug 2023
China export licensing requirement takes effect for indium
China · MOFCOM (China)
All indium exports require individual license. Introduced alongside gallium and germanium controls. Affects ~70% of global refined supply.
Aug
Aug 1, 2023
Export licensing takes effect
China · MOFCOM / GACC (China)
95%+ volume drop in August-September. Supply disruption begins. Prices start climbing.
Jul
Jul 3, 2023
China announces export licensing for germanium and gallium
China · MOFCOM (Announcement No. 27)
All Ge exports require individual license application. No immediate price impact.
2021–2022
2021–2022
China designates rare earths as 'strategic materials'; export licensing required
China · China MIIT / MOFCOM
Case-by-case export approval required for all rare earth shipments. Estimated 280–320 tonnes Tb oxide approved for export in 2023.
2022
2022
US designates terbium as Tier 1 critical mineral (highest risk)
China · US Department of the Interior
Cites 90% supply dependence on China and essential defense applications. IRA allocates >$250M for rare earth mining and processing.
Aug
Aug 2022
US Inflation Reduction Act signed into law
China · US Congress
EV tax credit ($7,500) requires 40–80% FTA-sourced critical minerals (2023–2027). Only 8% of refined cobalt is IRA-compliant. Excludes China, DRC, Indonesia.
2010-2014
2010-2014
China restricts rare earth exports; WTO rules against China
China · China / WTO
Triggered 2011 rare earth price crisis (Dy oxide >US$400/kg). WTO ruling forced removal of export quotas but demonstrated willingness to use RE supply as leverage.
2012
2012
China introduces national rare earth environmental protection law and annual production quotas
China · China MIIT / MEE
Began restricting ion-adsorption clay mining — the primary HREE-enriched source. Progressive tightening has continued ever since.
Jul
Jul 2006
EU RoHS Directive takes effect — lead-free solder mandated
European Union · European Commission
Electronics industry transitions to SAC solder alloys (96.5% Sn). Tin demand for solder increases structurally by ~15-20%. Sets global standard adopted by China RoHS 2.0 and other jurisdictions.
Structural Risks
Chokepoints and concentration notes
Beryllium: Three-country refining monopoly: US, China, Kazakhstan — no alternatives exist
Cobalt: China 73% refining — midstream monopoly
Copper: China 43% refining — trade friction risk
Dysprosium: China 85-90% of Dy refining and separation capacity
Dysprosium: Ion-adsorption clay deposits concentrated in southern China and Myanmar Kachin State
Dysprosium: China export licensing (Apr 2025) + expanded controls (Oct 2025)
Dysprosium: Myanmar border disruptions (Sep 2025) constraining ~50% of RE shipments to China
Gallium: China 99% primary gallium production
Gallium: China 98% low-purity gallium refining
Germanium: China 80–85% refining — near-monopoly
Gold: China 12% mining — largest single producer
Graphite: Spheronization and purification IP is highly concentrated in China
Indium: China 55–65% refined indium production
Indium: China dominant share of ITO sputtering target manufacturing
Lithium: China controls midstream chemical conversion
Molybdenum: China ~46% mining + dominant downstream processing — single-country leverage over refined products
Molybdenum: China Feb 2025 export controls (MOFCOM No. 10) on strategic-grade Mo materials
Molybdenum: FeMo production concentrated in China — bottleneck for global steelmakers
Selenium: China ~50% of global refined production
Tantalum: China processes 500+ tonnes/year with limited conflict mineral audit transparency
Tellurium: China 35-38% of global Te production
Terbium: China ~90% of global RE separation capacity — the binding constraint (not mining)
Tin: China >50% of smelting — midstream dominance; net importer of concentrates
Tungsten: The entire supply chain—from mine to APT to powder—is heavily centered in China.
Vanadium: China + Russia = ~85% of primary vanadium mining
Vanadium: China >50% of global refining and processing capacity
Vanadium: China near-monopoly on V2O5-to-VRFB electrolyte conversion
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