The Dispatch

China’s gallium licensing regime and U.S.-targeted ban exposed a fragile non-Chinese supply chain. Here is what buyers should watch before 2027 tightness.

China’s gallium controls since 2023 show how licensing, technology restrictions, and temporary suspensions keep Western defense and semiconductor buyers exposed.

A reality check on 12 China-independent critical mineral claims, separating investable resilience from narratives that still depend on Chinese processing.

Water, tailings, indigenous consent, and governance disputes are becoming core supply reliability risks for rare earth and critical mineral projects.

China’s rare earth and BeiDou supply chains sit behind both Israeli missile defense and Iranian strike capabilities, creating a hidden defense exposure.

MOFCOM Announcement 61 applies a 0.1% rare earth threshold to global supply chains. The pause to November 2026 delays enforcement, not the compliance risk.

China’s suspension of export controls on gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials expires on November 27, 2026. Buyers need a plan before then.

Project Vault pairs a proposed $10B critical minerals stockpile with a 55-nation framework. The real test is scope, price support, and execution.

Ford’s 2025 Explorer production halt exposed how rare earth magnets, dysprosium, and terbium can turn a minerals constraint into an automotive shutdown.