Data Brief

China’s gallium licensing regime and U.S.-targeted ban exposed a fragile non-Chinese supply chain. Here is what buyers should watch before 2027 tightness.

MOFCOM Announcement 61 applies a 0.1% rare earth threshold to global supply chains. The pause to November 2026 delays enforcement, not the compliance risk.

Project Vault pairs a proposed $10B critical minerals stockpile with a 55-nation framework. The real test is scope, price support, and execution.

Ammonium perchlorate capacity, DPA Title III limits, and Pentagon financing now define a critical bottleneck in Western missile surge production.

India holds major rare earth reserves but still lags in mining, separation, and magnet capacity. Policy is moving faster than execution.

The United States has 1.9M tonnes of rare earth reserves, but separation, metal, and magnet capacity still leave it exposed to China.

Greenland hosts major rare earth resources, but uranium politics, logistics, capital intensity, and permitting still block near-term production.

The DRC dominates cobalt mine supply but export quotas, artisanal flows, refining dependence, and buyer leverage limit durable pricing power.

The EU wants 15% rare earth recycling by 2030, but collection, separation, and magnet recovery capacity remain far behind the target.