
Cobalt Mining in Congo: 75% of Global Supply, Zero Pricing Power
Analysis of DRC cobalt mining, export quotas and artisanal flows, and why supply dominance has not translated into durable pricing power heading into 2026.
11 mars 2026
Anna K.Country Intelligence
Indonesia stands out in this dataset through policy leverage over trade and investment, upstream production exposure, and processing and refining capacity, with its strongest relevance showing up in Tin, Nickel, and Cobalt.
This country matters primarily because it can influence market access, investment flows, and compliance rules across strategic materials.
Strategic Read
Indonesia matters because upstream supply concentration still drives pricing power, availability, and procurement risk across multiple materials.
Policy events
4
Materials covered
4
Leading materials
Why Indonesia matters
Primary read
Policy driver
Why it matters
Indonesia matters because upstream supply concentration still drives pricing power, availability, and procurement risk across multiple materials.
What to watch
Watch policy changes, permitting, and trade rules alongside any shift in Tin exposure.
Coverage signals
Materials covered
4
Linked policy events
4
Refining appearances
1
Named companies
1
These are dataset signals showing how often Indonesia appears across strategic materials research, not official reserve or production totals.
Mining / upstream supply
High
3
Refining / processing
Moderate
1
Policy leverage
Moderate
4
Industrial presence
Low
1
Where Indonesia appears in the dataset
Integrated upstream and refining presence
Tin matters here because of producer signal: ~22-26% (70,000-81,000 tonnes), refining share: 13% (35,000-50,000), 1 named player, and appears in chokepoint analysis.
Producer signal
~22-26% (70,000-81,000 tonnes)
Refining share
13% · 35,000-50,000
Upstream production relevance
Nickel matters here because of producer signal: 50% (2.2M tonnes).
Producer signal
50% (2.2M tonnes)
Upstream production relevance
Cobalt matters here because of producer signal: 9.6% (28,000 tonnes, HPAL byproduct).
Producer signal
9.6% (28,000 tonnes, HPAL byproduct)
Supply-chain source relevance
Copper is one of the materials where this country appears in the intelligence dataset.
Industrial footprint by material
| Material | Roles | Producer signal | Refining |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tin | Producer, Refiner, Key Player, Chokepoint | ~22-26% (70,000-81,000 tonnes) | 13% · 35,000-50,000 |
| Nickel | Producer, Source | 50% (2.2M tonnes) | N/A |
| Cobalt | Producer | 9.6% (28,000 tonnes, HPAL byproduct) | N/A |
| Copper | Source | N/A | N/A |
Companies and industrial actors linked to Indonesia
Indonesia
State-owned; largest single global producer. Integrated mining and smelting on Bangka Belitung islands. 35,000-50,000 t/yr capacity.
Relevant policy and regulation
2022-2023
Indonesia · Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
Periodic delays in export permits. Contributed to supply uncertainty during a period when LME tin was already elevated ($28,000-38,000/tonne range).
Aug 2022
China · US Congress
EV tax credit ($7,500) requires 40–80% FTA-sourced critical minerals (2023–2027). Only 8% of refined cobalt is IRA-compliant. Excludes China, DRC, Indonesia.
2014 & 2020
Indonesia · Indonesian Government
Banned export of raw laterite ore, forcing tens of billions in foreign direct investment into domestic smelters.
2013
Indonesia · Indonesian Government
Forced consolidation of Indonesian smelting. Created 12-18 month global supply tightness. LME tin prices rose ~15-20%. Established precedent for Indonesian resource nationalism in tin.
Chokepoints and concentration notes
Tin: Indonesia ~22-26% of mine production — periodic export policy shocks (2013, 2022-2024)
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