The Dispatch

Aug 2026: the funded non-Chinese gallium and germanium projects — Alcoa Wagerup, Metlen, Korea Zinc, Teck Trail, 5N Plus — ranked by deliverability, with prices and China’s Nov 27 cliff.

Analysis of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act 2030 targets, why 10% extraction and 40% processing look structurally out of reach, and what signals matter.

Technical analysis of China’s critical minerals export playbook from gallium and germanium to rare earths, graphite and tungsten, and its supply-chain…

GaN vs SiC by voltage class (Aug 2026): SiC for 800–1200 V traction, solar and grid; GaN for ≤700 V chargers, server PSUs and 800 VDC racks — plus the gallium risk: China ~99%, 8–10× price gap, Nov 27 cliff.

A few percent of dysprosium and terbium keep NdFeB magnets from losing half their coercivity at 150 °C — and sit at the supply chain’s weakest point.

An offtake agreement locks in future supply. Here is how analysts separate genuinely bankable take-or-pay tonnes from aspirational nameplate capacity.

Bench yields above 90% for gallium, germanium and rare earths fall to 70-80% at pilot scale. Impurities and solvent extraction, not geology, set the limit.

Gallium is 90%+ Chinese and SiC boules grow one slow wafer at a time: here is where the wide-bandgap chip supply chain actually breaks, mine to module.

Friend-shoring critical minerals sounds clean, but China still refines 70-95% of rare earths while allied projects target only thousands of tonnes a year.